Contributed by Adam Carlton

Anyone could be forgiven for regarding the coming 3 May election as s non-event. Never have the main contenders stood for so little. If they had sat at a table and agreed to agree to have more or less the same policies, they would not have been able to do a much better job of it. However hard major media scribes try to the respective present positions on the issues that are most important to Australia, the result is always that there is minor difference to show.

Peter Dutton’s nuclear power crusade and his Mini Me mimicking of Trump set a lie of demarcation, which puts him at an electoral disadvantage. It also widens the widens fissures in his party. Other than this, the electorate has not been convinced that there isa lot of difference.

This election campaign shows that the gulf between these parties and the Australian community has never been so wide and deep. The latest Essential Poll puts Labor slightly ahead. But the extent of the lead relies on the usual two-party preferred system, where it assumes voters will follow the party line on preferences. This is no longer the case. second preferences are increasingly going to minor parties and independents. The indication is that even more are going to do so this time. It means that Labor’s lead is cut down.

Take these figures. Labour’s primary vote is 31 percent, the Coalition, 32 percent, the Greens 13 percent, and another 20 percent say they will vote for a minor party or independent. This means that the major parties have turned off 33 percent of the electorate. If this transforms into votes on 3 May, it will mean that the biggest block will be neither of the two traditional major parties.

This, of course will not translate into seats in parliament according to voter support. Australia’s electoral system is too rigged to allow this. Still, it does show that Australia is entering into a period of political instability. There is a particularly good chance that minority or new coalition governments are the new reality.

Both parties are aware of this, and what the Essential Poll found is corroborated by Newspoll, Resolve, YouGov, and Roy Morgan. Most people are wise enough not to rely on one poll. But when the pollsters reach a consensus, this is worth taking note of.

The polls show that the prevailing view is that when it comes to the big concerns, like taking on the cost of living crisis, housing, health, energy policy and carbon emission targets, response to Trump’s tariffs, the reaction to the slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza, the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal, and even keeping Australia safe, almost half said there was no difference and only about a third supported either party’s position.

Australia’s national mood, according to the Essential Poll is that the growing proportion of those who believe Australia is moving forward on the wrong track now sits on 50 percent, while those feeling that the nation is on the wrong track is now only 33 percent and those who are unsure fallen to 17 percent.

Image from the ABC News

Under these circumstances, greater political instability is the natural outcome, and rather than being a threat, bring the possibility of positive outcomes. The main one is a political maturation of the population, which begins to realise the futility of reliance of snake oil sellers and building the capacity of community action. This is the path towards an alternative vision and path to the future.

The prospect of minority or new coalitions, combined with community action, increases the capacity to increase pressure on the political system to deliver, or show itself as incapable of meeting the real needs of Australia.